PlanB
- X: https://x.com/100trillionUSD | ~2.1M followers
- Personal site: https://planbtc.com
- Company: Independent — pseudonymous Dutch institutional investor
- Authority: Creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) valuation model, first published March 2019. The S2F model, which relates Bitcoin's scarcity (stock-to-flow ratio) to its price, became one of the most widely cited Bitcoin valuation frameworks globally. Quoted by Bloomberg, CNBC, Forbes, and CoinDesk. Identity kept anonymous but broadly acknowledged as a former institutional investor in the Netherlands.
- Prediction: May 2020: Predicted $100K by end of 2021 (S2F model floor). Miss — BTC peaked ~$69K in Nov 2021. Aug 2021: Predicted $135K–$288K by Dec 2021 (S2FX cross-asset model). Miss. Sep 2021: Monthly floor predictions for Q4 2021 ($63K/$98K/$135K/$100K per month). Miss. Despite consistent misses on specific magnitude targets, S2F correctly identified Bitcoin's cyclical bull phases.
- Methodology: Quantitative — Stock-to-Flow ratio (ratio of existing supply to annual new supply). Model treats Bitcoin like scarce commodities (gold, silver). S2FX cross-asset variant adds ratio regression vs. other assets. Predictions are model outputs, not narrative-based.
- Media: Bloomberg, CNBC, Forbes, CoinDesk, Decrypt, The Block
- Decision: auto_approved Tier 2 — S2F model creator, 2.1M followers, quoted by Bloomberg/CNBC/Forbes, clear quantitative methodology. No institutional affiliation but model creator status warrants Tier 2.
Methodology
Uses a documented prediction methodology
Price Predictions (0)
No predictions on record for this author.